Krasnow Institute > Monday Seminars > Abstracts

Can We Reduce Strategic Surprise?
Reflections on Opportunities for Basic and Applied Research
at the Intersection of
the Human Mind and National Security

Margaret M. Polski, Ph.D.
Sr. Advisor ASE and Associate Professor of International Security Affairs
College of International Security Affairs
National Defense University
and
Affiliate Research Fellow
Krasnow Institute for Advanced Study
George Mason University

“We need to be prepared to fight a different war. This is another type of war, new in its intensity, ancient in its origin, war by guerilla, subversives, insurgents, assassins; war by ambush instead of combat, by infiltration instead of aggression, seeking victory by eroding and exhausting the enemy instead of engaging him. It requires, in those situations where we encounter it, a whole new strategy, a wholly different kind of force, and therefore, a new and wholly different kind of military training.”

--President John F. Kennedy, 1962 U.S. Military Academy Commencement Address

Despite prescient leadership in the post World War II era, the number, type, and frequency of strategic surprises that we have encountered has increased over the past generation and they are proliferating across military, political, and economic affairs. While we have thus far avoided the further use of weapons of mass destruction, this may be as Tom Schelling points out, a case of stunning good luck rather than strategic skill. When it comes to fighting “a different war” some progress has been made at tactical and operating concept levels in civilian and military practice, however as the current debate over our engagement in Afghanistan suggests, we are still floundering at the strategic level. It is increasingly obvious to those who study the human mind that we cannot change behavior without changing brains: Can advances in the neurosciences contribute to understanding and reducing strategic surprise?

Back to Top

The Krasnow Institute for Advanced Study
Mail Stop 2A1, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030
Phone: (703) 993-4333 Fax: (703) 993-4325
Email: krasnow-webmaster@gmu.edu